Sunday, October 3, 2010

2010 Midterm Elections - pollster.com - Republican Senate?

For this article I am going to use the pollster.com 2010 Senate Election map.

A good deal of political pundits, especially those in the center, or center left, understood that the Democrats would lose a few seats, however, they were not expecting the massive force accompanying the tea-party.

Many political scientists believed that the Republican party was in the mist of a civil war, promting statments such as,

"A battle for the Planet GOP is currently underway, pitting the RINOs against the EIPOs" - War Room, Salon.com
For those who don't know a R.I.N.O. (rino) stands for Republican in name only. This group consists of those who change their party affiliation to get elected, such as Arlen Specter, or Republicans who do not vote for and address the Republican parties ideology.

A E.I.P.O. (eipo) stands for electable in primaries only. This group of people consists of those who often have strong Republican and Conservative believes, and often are affiliated with the tea-party movement. These qualities are no bad in themselves, however, when it comes to a general election pundits believe that they are too far right, or the Democrats will pull up some information, often skewed, and damage the campaign. Political scientists and pundits believe that the eipos are the new generation of the Republican party, and although excitement was gained in the primary fighting against a weak Republican they lack the skill to beat a strong Democrat.

I could not disagree more with the idea that Republicans elected a bunch of eipo's and are committing political suicide. Many political analyst fail to give credit to the massive force behind the "tea-party" movement. The biggest mistake they make is:

The TEA-PARTY movement is NOT a bus, it's NOT a town-hall, its NOT grass-roots, it IS A STATE OF MIND..


The tea party movement consists of so many people, and factors. Simply going through my inbox, I have ton's of e-mails about tea-party events, bus stops, information about candidates, how to get started,  etc. This is the movement that I believe will cause a major win for Republicans, and I believe that they will take back both houses of Congress, and several Governor positions.
  
Finally to election analysis:

According to this weeks data (needs to be updated):

Republican guarenteed: 47
Democrat Guaranteed: 47
Toss Up: 4
Other: 2 (I counted 3 other states, there are not 51 states, but I'll go with it)



Toss Up State /                Lead             / Voted in 2008
Illinois                            Rep + 1          Dem +23.4
Nevada                           Dem + 1        N/A
Washington                    Dem + 3        N/A
West Virginia                 Rep _2           Dem +20.6

Other                                Lead             Voted in 2008
Alaska                            Rep +6           Dem +4.4
Colorado                        Rep +6           Dem +11.4
Missouri                        Rep +7           N/A

My State
Connecticut                   Dem +3      


First let me start off with Connecticut. I believe that there is a ton of momentum behind McMahon, and assuming she can keep this up, and continue to expose herself as fiscally responsible, and showing ad's of her opponent lying, she should win. This would give Rep 48 / Dem 46

Other States -
Alaska: I think Alaska is going to go Republican. Regardless of what happens they still like Sarah Palin, she still brought some spotlight to Alaska, and she'll always bee the home-town girl. They only just managed to vote by 4 points in 08, and with a +6 point lead, I think they will win, if there is good voter turnout.  Rep 49 / Dem 45

I have not done a great deal of research but I believe that Colorado can maintain it's lead and make it Rep 50 / Dem 44

Nevada is a great state to watch, getting rid of Reid would be excellent, we need someone fresh. It's only a 1 point difference. People need to get active in Nevada, the tea-party express certainly should stop here. Over 70% of people disapprove of the Congress, that needs to be the selling point. Don't go after Reid, but Congress, then link them together and done.

There is still 4 weeks left until the election, and until more is known snout the other states I'm going to skip those states for now.

Ultimately the Republicans don't need 51 votes, because every vote away from the Democrats, or more importantly the liberals, is a great victory.

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